Tesla’s autonomous vehicle operations in Austin, Texas, are showing a significantly higher rate of incident involvement compared to human drivers, according to recently disclosed figures. The data, submitted to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), covers the five-month period from July through November 2025.
During this timeframe, the Robotaxi fleet logged approximately 500,000 miles, resulting in nine reported crashes, which suggests an incident occurred roughly every 55,000 miles driven. This frequency contrasts sharply with NHTSA data indicating that human drivers report one police-notified crash every 500,000 miles, with estimates suggesting a more realistic human rate closer to one crash per 200,000 miles.
Electrek reported on this discrepancy, highlighting that these metrics are concerning, especially considering that every Robotaxi operating in the pilot program includes a dedicated human safety monitor in the front seat ready to intervene. Despite this fail-safe presence, the autonomous vehicles still accumulate accidents at a higher frequency per mile than the average solo human operator.
The transparency surrounding these incidents remains limited, as the reports filed with the NHTSA under the Standing General Order are heavily redacted. Specific details are scarce; for instance, one September 2025 incident simply noted a robotaxi “hit an animal at 27 mph,” omitting crucial context regarding the operational circumstances.
These operational realities stand in contrast to past projections from Elon Musk, who reportedly claimed the Robotaxi service would reach half of the US population by the close of 2025. As of early 2026, the service remains confined primarily to Austin, with the San Francisco Bay Area deployment functioning as a supervised ride-hailing service lacking full autonomy permits.
Despite the current safety profile and limited geographic scope, Tesla confirmed during its recent Q4 earnings call that it intends to expand the Robotaxi program into seven additional US cities within the first half of this year. Announced expansion targets include Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, Miami, Orlando, Tampa, and Las Vegas.
This expansion push signals the company's commitment to scaling the technology despite the nascent operational data suggesting a performance gap relative to established human driving safety benchmarks. The forthcoming deployment will offer further real-world data points for assessing the maturity of the current autonomous stack.
