Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Mike McGlone reiterated his prediction that Bitcoin will crater to $10,000 during a recent interview with Ellio Trades published by Sherwood News. McGlone stated that the correlation between Bitcoin and all risk assets is much more significant than it was a few years ago when digital assets operated in isolation from traditional finance. On Thursday morning, Bitcoin remained flat, still stuck in the $70,000 range despite this bearish outlook from a major financial research firm.
My point is, if you are buying any type of cryptos now, you have to hope the stock market goes up, McGlone said in the interview regarding current market dynamics. He noted that cryptocurrencies have been trading horribly versus stocks for almost two years now indicating a strong negative correlation with traditional equities. Good luck for that to change, he added regarding the current market conditions which favor risk assets over speculative digital currencies.
Several experts said his extremely bearish outlook is implausible given the current market structure and adoption levels within the global financial system. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, a Bitcoin bull who predicts Bitcoin will hit one million in 10 years, unsurprisingly disagrees with the prediction of such a precipitous drop. Bitcoin has fat tails, meaning extreme events are possible, Hougan said while respecting McGlone as a data-driven analyst who relies on historical patterns.
Hougan noted that $10,000 strikes him as extremely unlikely unless governments stopped running deficits or a catastrophic bear market occurs across all asset classes globally. Critics have been prophesizing Bitcoin’s doom for 17 years and have been wrong so far, according to the Bitwise chief investment officer who tracks the market closely. He suspects they will be wrong again regarding the price target for the digital asset given institutional interest continues to grow.
Brian Huang, cofounder of Glider, told Sherwood that at this point, Bitcoin is too big to fail in the current financial ecosystem due to its entrenched position. Huang said that entire companies are built around mining Bitcoin, and that is only profitable if Bitcoin stays above a certain price threshold for operational viability. At $10,000, it would make more sense for mining companies to buy Bitcoin on the market to pump it up than go out of business completely.
Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget, also said that Bitcoin dropping to that level is highly improbable, even amid macro uncertainty and geopolitical tensions affecting global trade. Many market participants argue such a collapse would require an extreme systemic shock such as a global liquidity crisis, nuclear conflict, or a complete breakdown of internet infrastructure. Lee added that the current market structure points in the opposite direction regarding price stability and long-term holding strategies.
Bitcoin ETFs have registered $1.1 billion in inflows so far this month, according to SoSoValue data tracking digital asset funds and institutional investment flows. This reinforces institutional recognition of Bitcoin as a 24/7 geopolitical hedge rather than purely a speculative risk asset for sophisticated investors seeking diversification. After enduring multiple de-leveraging cycles in recent years, the industry’s structure is significantly stronger than previous downturns in 2018 or 2022.
Non-Bitcoin cryptocurrencies have seen their trading volume plummet in the past five months across major exchanges as investors retreat to safer digital assets. The combined trading volume of Ethereum, XRP, Solana, Dogecoin, SUI, and Chainlink has decreased by 60% since the October 10 liquidation event triggered sector-wide weakness. This trend may be explained by a contraction in market liquidity over the same period, according to Thomas Probst of Kaiko who monitors deep market data.
Payward, crypto exchange Kraken’s parent company, has paused its plans for an initial public offering until market conditions improve according to reports citing industry sources. Since the firm announced in November its preparation for an IPO of its common stock, the total market capitalization of the crypto industry has shed roughly $652 billion in value. The news comes two weeks after Kraken received approval for a master account from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City allowing bank integration.
